I chose not to chase today due to the prospects of a cap bust, and loss of 50+ knots at 500mb on the models last night. It looks like I made the right decision as we are at 00Z and still no convection breaking out in Iowa, Nebraska or South Dakota. I will be interested to see what the 00Z sounding for OAX.

Mesoanalysis is showing 5500 CAPE/LI -11 in Northeast Nebraska, so if anything can get going tonight, it should be pretty good. A quick glance at Visible Satellite isn't showing anything real impressive yet, however. With only a few hours left of daylight, I think today is pretty much a bust.

As for tomorrow and Sunday, the SPC has outlooked Lower Michigan in the 15% SLGT risk area. This will be the first real chance at Michigan seeing some severe weather since June 19th. I am not overly impressed looking at the 18Z Data from today that we will actually see much of anything through Monday of any significance. Once the cold front goes through on Monday, it will end all our chances of severe weather.