Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak on Friday?

Well, I had 2009 dead as of a week and a half ago. Stick a fork in it. Figures it would surprise me yet again. The GFS is currently calling for an amazing outbreak of severe weather this week, followed by (ugh) snow this weekend. The SPC picked up on the setup this morning, and outlooked Day 4 (Thursday) and Day 5(Friday) in their experiemental Day 4-8 outlook.

October 27, 2009 Day 4-8 Outlook

The 12Z GFS was showing a 976mb low centered over northern Minnesota and plenty of moisture return over the entire great lakes. The 00Z GFS from tonight is a bit faster with the system, but the NAM is slowing things down for Thursday and hopefully that is the general trend.

Temperatures should make it well into the mid to upper 60's with dewpoints not far behind. Instability is still a factor, but it won't take much this time of year to get the storms going. Shear will be absolutely amazing, with a 140+ knot jet stream overhead.

Temperature falls drastically after the cold front passes through the area late Friday/Early Saturday. It wouldn't surprise me to see some cold rain/possible snow showers over the weekend.

There is definitely still a lot of questions in the air, and it's still 2009. Either way, this looks to be a very dynamic system, and hopefully will provide a Storm Chasing opportunity. It definitely bears watching!

Some have said this system looks a lot like October 24, 2001 the day I saw my very first funnel cloud.

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