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- Weekend Success: 9 tornadoes between April 13 and 14!
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- Chase Forecast November 7, 2011
- Review of Adam Lucio's "The Noob"
Chase Forecast November 7, 2011
It's Sunday morning here in Oklahoma after the time change, and that isn't the only thing that's changed. The winds changed direction and started sucking moisture up from the gulf yesterday, with strong southerly winds. Upper 50 and low 60 dewpoints are now into north Texas and southern Oklahoma with Pauls Valley, OK reporting 61 at 10 am CST this morning. You can see the moisture return in the graphic below, with the data coming from current observations.
This warm moist air mass is going to clash with cool dry air tomorrow and form many storms as the chances for Severe Thunderstorms looks pretty high tomorrow. I have already planned on going storm chasing tomorrow afternoon. The SPC has outlooked a 30% hatched area for severe weather with mention of Strong Tornadoes in their text.
Now to the forecast for tomorrow. I have been basing my forecast mostly off the NAM, which seems to have been handling things well all year at least in my opinion. The NAM is showing 2000 J/KG of CAPE developing around 21Z south of Childress, TX and a nice Dryline bulge just southwest of there. The current target is pretty obvious in my mind, and would be somewhere near Childress. I will probably be leaving Norman around 11 am to head southwest towards that area.
Hodographs are absolutely incredible, especially just before sunset along the Red River in Southwest Oklahoma and Northwest Texas. It definitely looks like things are coming together for a potentially high end fall severe weather event in SW OK and NW TX and into the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle. Follow me on Twitter to keep updated on my chase plans for tomorrow!